When Vladimir Putin took it upon himself to annex Crimea, thoughts of the future of the AN-124 aircraft were likely not uppermost in his mind.
As it is, the Russian president has neatly succeeded in busting wide open one of the most important and vital commercial aviation agreements that existed between Russia and Ukraine. That was the joint and mutual cooperation between the two countries that has kept the AN-124 heavy-lift freighter flying and which was promising to see the restart of serial production of the ex-Soviet military airlifter.
The rift also throws into question the future of Ruslan International, the joint venture formed eight years ago between Ukraine’s Antonov Airlines and Russia’s Volga-Dnepr Airlines. Its objective was to create a single marketing and sales operation for the carriers’ combined fleets of 17 AN-124-100s. This provides the outsize market with a consistent and unequalled source of AN-124-100 capacity, of which 10 aircraft are provided by Volga-Dnepr and seven from Antonov Airlines, the latter being the operational arm of Antonov Design Bureau, the designer and builder of the aircraft.
For the two operators, it has created the opportunity to optimize the utilization of their respective fleets. A completely separate sales and marketing tool, Ruslan International has been set-up as an independent UK-based company, located at London Stansted Airport, responsible for reporting its own accounts and results.
One of the biggest gains from establishing the joint venture sales operation has been the reduction in so-called empty leg flying, required to re-position aircraft, says Michael Goodisman, business development manager for Ruslan International.
“In the early days of the commercial operation of the AN-124-100s, you could expect empty-leg sectors to account for 45 percent of flying time, which then was deemed acceptable,” Goodisman says. “Perhaps the single most important impact we have been able to make is the significant rationalization in aircraft utilization we have been able to achieve. The efficiencies we have gained over the past eight years means that we have been able to reduce empty flying to less than 25 percent of total hours flown.”
This, he says, has increased overall yields and reduced the need to backhaul marginally-rated general cargo.
“The pay-off has come because of our ability to manage the combined fleet more effectively, ” Goodisman says. “It also means that we are nearly always able to offer the customer the charter solution they require, because invariably we will have an aircraft located in the region”
Ruslan International’s marketing position in the heavy-lift market has been strengthened of late with the apparent “arrest” over outstanding debts of the remaining AN-124 fleet operated by fellow Russia carrier Polet Airlines.
Where does Ruslan International stand today, amid the growing tension between the two former Soviet bedfellows?
When contacted early in April, Goodisman insisted it was still very much business as usual.
“As far as Ruslan International is concerned, we continue to offer the fleets of both airlines to the market, so there are no changes that I am aware of,” he says.
Even so, Ruslan International is a source of some embarrassment for Western governments set on imposing sanctions on Russia. Members of the North Atlantic Treating Organization (NATO) are reliant on the AN-124 to provide its heavy-lift capability in Europe.
Ruslan International, in fact, was born of an already initiated cooperation between the two carriers through the Ruslan SALIS (Strategic Airlift Interim Solution) project to provide NATO with two AN-124-100 aircraft on instant standby.
To meet this requirement, an aircraft from each company has remained permanently on station at Leipzig-Halle Airport in Germany with provision to provide a further four aircraft at short notice. The Ruslan SALIS contract has been continually extended with the present commitment to run through 2014.
Reports in the Russian media suggested earlier this year that NATO wanted to rollout the contract for a further two years. But then came Crimea and a terse statement from NATO saying that it was suspending all practical cooperation with Russia, both military and civilian due to the crisis.
That presumably leaves the Ruslan SALIS contract in limbo.
When contacted for a response, a NATO official told Air Cargo World: “Stakeholders are currently reviewing the Ruslan SALIS contract.” But added: “As things stand, there is an option to extend it until December 2017.”
NATO’s needs aside, Ruslan International has taken on an increasing role as the focal point for efforts by both partner airlines to restore production of the AN-124-100.
As a first step, Volga-Dnepr Airlines and Antonov Design Bureau, now known simply as Antonov Company, signed an accord to initiate a program to upgrade the first of Volga-Dnepr’s fleet of AN-124-100s. Under the terms of existing proposals, the modernized AN-124-111VD would have an increased payload of 150 tonnes, compared with 120 tonnes for the original.
This fleet modernization initiative, it is said, would also help fund a major research and development program to act as the catalyst for ultimately re-launching serial production of a new-build AN-124-300 freighter.
Volga-Dnepr Group’s president, Alexey Isaikin, has previously stated that he would be ready to order up to 40 of the new-build AN-124-300s, based on long-term strategic requirements for oversize and heavy cargo transportation.
It is commercial market segment, according to Volga-Dnepr estimates, which is growing at a rate of 10-12 percent a year in cash terms. That means it would be valued at US$3 billion (2.1 billion euros) by 2020 and US$7 billion (5 billion euros) by 2030.
In reality, any chance of a re-start of production of the AN-124 would not be dependent on the commercial segment, but the military one and in particular if Russia’s military commits to such a program.
That aside, of course, from political wrangling. Mother Russia may be the senior partner in latest efforts to reinvigorate the AN-124 program and bring it back to life, but it is Ukraine that holds the blueprints.