Grim new numbers from WorldACD

Editor’s note: The text in this article has been edited to reflect that revenue losses in the Asia-Pacific trade lane ranged between 13 and 47 percent over the previous year. Also, the Nairobi to Amsterdam, Chicago to London, and Mumbai to London routes have been identified correctly as being the only ones of the top 50 traffic streams outside the trans-Pacific market to record positive revenue.

It’s a bit worse than we thought, apparently. According to the latest WorldACD report for the first half of 2015, air cargo revenue losses worldwide fell by an average of 9.3 percent, compared to the same period in 2014, due more to yield deterioration than to volume loss. The hardest-hit trade lane for the half was for origins and destinations between the Asia-Pacific region and Europe, which suffered losses varying between 13 and 47 percent of the previous year’s revenues.

Of the top 50 traffic streams outside the trans-Pacific market, only three routes – Nairobi to Amsterdam, Chicago to London, and Mumbai to London – recorded positive revenue. Additionally, the top 20 forwarders, as a group, grew less in volume than all of the other forwarders together.

Most telling is an analysis World ACD did between June 2008 and June 2015. None of the 12 inter-regional markets saw an increase in yield. The market that performed the best was North America to Asia-Pacific, where the yield decrease was -9 percent. In all other markets, the decrease ranged from – 22 percent  for Middle East/South Asia to -41 percent forAsia Pacific to Europe.

There were some positive news, however. June 2015 wasn’t significantly different from May, but year-over-year volume growth was higher at 2.6 percent. Africa and the Middle East/South Asia were the best performers, volume-wise, at 5 percent and 6.4 percent y-o-y increases, respectively. Europe fared well with exports, with y-o-y volume growth of 5.9 percent compared to -1.2 percent y-o-y in May. Asia-Pacific exports were up 0.4 percent, y-o-y, with incoming cargo increasing the most in Middle East/South Asia at 9.8 percent and North America with 6.9 percent.

Year-over-year trends reported include the growth of perishables largest to Middle East, up 59 percent, and up 35 percent to the Asia-Pacific region. Perishables to Europe and North America only grew 15 percent. In pharmaceuticals, the growth was to the Asia-Pacific region, up 74 percent, y-o-y, and to the Middle East/South Asia region, up 66 percent. Overall the destinations Middle East/Asia Pacific and North America both grew 17 percent while Europe rose by 3 percent; Latin America trailed with -7 percent.

 

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