SHANGHAI — With no end in sight to the burgeoning growth of global e-commerce, the worldwide growth in narrowbody freighters is anticipated to reach 1,178 aircraft by 2036, up from just 656 narrowbody freighters at the end of 2016, according to the 20-year “Freighter Forecast for 2017 – 2036,” released today at the sixth-annual Cargo Facts Asia conference. The forecast was created by ACMG, a leading global air cargo consultancy and parent of Air Cargo World’s sister publication, Cargo Facts.
By 2036, the report stated, narrowbodies will account for about 43 percent of the total, global freighter fleet of 2,341 aircraft. That compares to about a 40 percent share that narrowbodies hold in today’s fleet.
“The robust activity in freighter conversion of narrowbody types over the past four years has led to an increase in the quantity of narrowbody freighters in the global fleet,” said Robert V. Dahl, managing director of ACMG. “This increase reverses a trend that began in 2000 through which the narrowbody freighter fleet decreased about 40 percent over a decade-long period.”
For the first time, the “Freighter Forecast” includes projections for the size of the large turboprop and regional jet freighter fleets over the next 20 years. These additions round out the forecast for the freighter fleet to be as comprehensive as possible. Also, for the first time the forecast includes in its base-case the effect of the shift of cargo from freighter aircraft to passenger aircraft bellies. See senior editor David Harris’ analysis of the report in Cargo Facts: