The International Air Transport Association noted the “softness” of the airfreight market and warned of another tough year ahead in its March 2016 airfreight market analysis, which reported a 2 percent, year-over-year, drop in worldwide cargo traffic, measured in freight tonne kilometers. Tony Tyler, IATA’s director general and CEO added that stagnant growth in international trade, and the consensus among industry purchasing managers that such conditions are unlikely to change in the short-term, “gives little optimism for an early uptick.”
Growth in world trade remains stagnant, up only 0.8 percent over last year. Even if trade volumes were to pick up during the second quarter, annualized growth is expected to remain low – around 1.5 percent – which would translate to 0.6 percent growth in airfreight volumes, according to the current multiplier.
As expected, carriers in North America and Asia Pacific showed significant year-on-year drops in cargo volumes for the second consecutive month in March 2016. The comparative decline was expected following the surge in airfreight moving across the Pacific due to the U.S. West Coast port disruptions during Q1 2015, though weak export volumes out of Asia are providing additional headwinds for airfreight growth. North American carriers saw demand fall by 1.8 percent in March and 3.8 percent for the first quarter. Asia-Pacific carriers, in turn, saw volumes fall by 5.2 percent in March, and 5.6 percent for the year.
Europe and the Middle East were two regions which bucked the trend of falling FTKs, and saw growth of 1.3 percent, and 2.4 percent respectively. While growth is still favorable to the alternative, Europe has barely returned to pre-recession levels, with FTKs up only about 1 percent from March 2008 levels. At 2.4 percent growth to FTKs in the Middle East, this is the slowest annual FTK growth since July 2009.
Airfreight volumes continued to fall in Latin American carriers, with demand down 5.9 percent in March 2016. IATA notes that volumes are 15 percent lower compared to March 2015. INTRA-South America routes fared comparatively worse than long-haul flights between South America and Europe.
Moving beyond the first quarter, distortions to annual comparisons from the 2015 west coast port strikes should finally start to subside giving a clearer indication as to how airfreight volumes are changing.